THE GREAT G.O.A.T. DEBATE
By Zach Gendron
Written: Started 7/23/15 - Finished 8/2/15
Edited: 10/9/16
Edited: 6/14/17
Edited: 4/18/20
In futbol the number has always been 10. In basketball though, the number is 23. 23. A number that has changed the game. 23. A number for legends and stars. 23. A number that was worn by Michael Jeffrey Jordan. 23. A number that is worn by LeBron Raymone James. Ever since LJ played AAU basketball on the Northeast Ohio Shooting Stars, comparisons have been made, arguments started, and numerous debates have occurred all over one thing…who really is the best to ever play the game? Air Jordan vs. The Akron Hammer. The G.O.A.T vs. The Chosen One. His Airness vs. The King. MJ vs. LBJ.
To be the best, one has to have not only skilled with skills such as offense and defense, but also the intangibles such as leadership and drive. Whether watching a game on YouTube, live on TV, on SportsCenter the next morning, in person, etc., I believe that you will never see two leaders that are more motivated and driven than MJ and LJ.
The basic details are simple. MJ, a guard, at 6’6 and 216 lb, played 15 seasons. LJ, a forward, at 6’8 and 250 lb, has played 16 (in the middle of 17). Obviously MJ is done, and LJ still has time…I predict about 3 more years, give or take. (He’s 35 now, and may play till even around 40 ish aka Tim Duncan, Ray Allen, Kobe Bryant, etc.) So basically this comes down to two categories: Regular season and playoffs/finals.
I honestly don’t know why championships is always the thing that people go by when saying MJ is better than LJ, just because if you are going off of rings won, Bill Russell is the GOAT…end of discussion, but he is rarely talked about as the best. Also, if rings were what determined the best, then Nick Young and JR Smith are better than Charles Barkley, and JaVale McGee is the same as Hakeem Olajuwon. Anyway, I’ll start with the second one, because that IS what most people really care about for this “GOAT debate.”
Playoff wise, MJ played in 13, and LJ has played in 13. That means that MJ played in the playoffs approximately 87% of the seasons he played, and LJ has played in approximately 81.25%, both missing out on two seasons. As stated earlier, LJ still has many years left, and will most likely end up making it to more playoffs than MJ did.
Finals wise, they are now different. MJ made it to 6 finals and LJ has made it to 8 finals. MJ has the upper hand by winning all 6 of his though, while LJ only has 3 rings.
MJ won his second ring in 1992 at the age of 29, and LJ won his second ring in 2013 at the age of 28. Both MJ and LJ won their second ring in their 8th playoff appearance. At the time of his second ring, MJ had accumulated 13 playoff series wins, a playoff win percentage of 58.7%, 3 MVPs, and 8 All Star appearances. At the time of his second ring, LJ had the upper hand in every single one of these categories, with 19 series wins, 63.8% win percentage, 4 MVPs, and 9 All Star appearances.
With the amount of time, and possible team(s) that LJ could have though, I see him making it to more, and possibly winning 1 more. MJ will always have the better percent, but LJ COULD end up with more rings. If the Lakers stay healthy they could be a force in the league for many years. In all 6 of MJ’s finals wins, he won MVP, and likewise, LJ won MVP in all of his finals wins. I assume if they go on to win more, LJ will win MVP.
This brings me to finals supporting cast and opponents. THIS IS HUGE!!! We all know LJ pretty much puts the team on his back all the time, but this proves it. In the 6 times MJ went to the finals his supporting cast rankings were as follows: 1, 5, 6, 24, 49, and 53 (average of 23). Just going off of the first 6 finals appearances, LJ went to the finals his supporting cast rankings were as follows: 10, 21, 39, 55, 60, and 61 (average of 41). These rankings…are out of 62. Also, LJ has played much better teams than MJ did. MJ played teams 3, 52, 29, 27, 26, and 31 (average of 28). Again, just from the first 6, LJ played teams 58, 25, 2, 7, 14, and 11 (average of 19.5). Pretty much what this is saying is that LJ had to carry worse teams against better opponents, won 2, and probably should have won 2 more. Also, the 7th appearance for LJ, he played the 73-9 Warriors, the best regular season record of all time.
Going off of those supporting cast numbers, looking at fivethirtyeight's complete history of the NBA Elo rankings for every team through every game in history, the teams that LeBron played on in the finals were -74, +16, -63, +24, -104, -98, -78, and -170 Elo compared to the opposing teams. The teams that Jordan played on were +37, +66, +125, +147, +52, and -9 Elo compared to the opposing teams. These numbers were based off of the rankings of the teams on the first day of the finals. The full stats are as follows:
LeBron
2007 - June 7 (1636) vs SAS (1710) = -74 L
2011 - May 31 (1727) vs DAL (1711) = +16 L
2012 - June 12 (1680) vs OKC (1743) = -63 W
2013 - June 6 (1745) vs SAS (1721) = +24 W
2014 - June 5 (1632) vs SAS (1736) = -104 L
2015 - June 4 (1708) vs GSW (1806) = -98 L
2016 - June 2 (1718) vs GSW (1796) = -78 W
2017 - June 1 (1686) vs GSW (1856) = -170 L
Jordan
1991 - June 2 (1742) vs LAL (1705) = +37 W
1992 - June 3 (1755) vs POR (1689) = +66 W
1993 - June 9 (1750) vs PHO (1625) = +125 W
1996 - June 5 (1837) vs SEA (1690) = +147 W
1997 - June 1 (1801) vs UTA (1749) = +52 W
1998 - June 3 (1757) vs UTA (1766) = -9 W
Another thing to backup the supporting cast argument, is played out nicely from https://www.numberfire.com/nba/news/15044/don-t-hold-lebron-james-finals-record-against-him. This is about Basketball-Reference.com's Simple Rating System, and comparing the numbers of LJ's teams to the numbers of MJ's teams.
Moving on to playoff stats. MJ averaged 33.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG, and 5.7 APG. LJ averaged 28.9 PPG, 8.9 RPG, and 7.1 APG. This shows that is he a better scorer per game? No. Better all around player? Yes. For totals, MJ had 5,987 points (460.5 per playoff), 1,152 rebounds (88.6 per playoff), and 1,022 assists (78.6 per playoff). For totals, LJ has 6.911 points (531.6 per playoff), 2,122 rebounds (163.2 per playoff), and 1,687 assists (129.7 per playoff). These numbers are INSANE proof for LJ, and he’s not done yet. He has higher numbers in every single one of those categories. Also, taking into account points + (assists)(2), the minimum total of points contributed to can be calculated. After doing this, MJ contributed to a minimum of 8,031 points in the playoffs and LJ has contributed to a minimum of 10,285 points. LJ has contributed to more points (or at least very close with 3s) already, with more times to go in the playoffs.
In the 2017 playoffs, LeBron also passed Jordan in most free throws made (1,463) and playoff scoring (6,163).
Playoff stats percentage wise, MJ does have the slight edge with 48.7 FG%, 33.2 3pt %, and 82.8 FT%, compared to LJ’s 49.1%, 33.2%, and 74.3%.
Finally, MJ was and probably will always be considered the best closer and most clutch player ever. In 2013 an article on Bleacher Report compared and graded the buzzer beaters of both players (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1649603-comparing-lebron-james-playoff-buzzer-beating-shots-to-michael-jordans-best). In 2018 though, ESPN Stats and Info did a comparison of Final Shots in the final 5 seconds of the 4th Qtr and/or OT for the postseason. MJ was 5-11 for 45% with 3 buzzer beaters, and LJ was 7-15 for 47% with 5 buzzer beaters.
Regular season time!
To start off, individual awards and accolades. With 14 All Star Games, 5 MVP awards, 11 All NBA teams, 9 All Defensive teams, 1 DPOY award, 10 times scoring leader, and 1 ROY award, MJ had an amazing career. BUT, with 16 All Star Games, 4 MVP awards, 15 All NBA teams, 6 All Defensive teams, 1 time scoring leader, 1 ROY award, AND time to play, LJ's numbers are equally impressive.
Just like for playoffs, next are stats. As stated before, MJ was a scoring machine, averaging 30.1 PPG in his regular season career. He also averaged 6.2 RPG and 5.3 APG. Also as stated earlier, LJ is a better all around player, averaging 27.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG, and 7.4 APG. In his “regular season career,” His Airness totaled 32,292 points (average of 2,152.8 per season), 6,672 rebounds (average of 444.8 per season), and 5,633 assists (average of 375.5 per season). So far in his “regular season career,” The King has a total of 34,087 points (average of 2,005 per season), 9,353 rebounds (average of 550.1 per season), and 9,298 assists (average of 546.9 per season). Once again taking into account points + (assists)(2), the minimum total of points contributed to was calculated. MJ had a minimum of 43,558 points contributed to, and LJ has a minimum of 52,683 points contributed to. When LJ finishes his career, he will add to the 2,000 more points, almost 3,000 more rebounds, and he will just keep adding to the 3,600 more assists.
For regular season stats percentages, LJ actually has THE SLIGHTEST edge in FG% with 50.4% to MJ’s 49.7%. MJ has a larger edge in FT% with 83.5% to LJ’s 73.5%. Finally, LJ has a better 3pt %, beating out MJ 34.4% to 32.7%.
PER, or Player Efficiency Rating, “is a rating of a player’s per-minute productivity.” PER is based off of missed and made shots, free throws, rebounds, assist, steals, blocks, turnovers, and fouls. Jordan led the NBA in PER in 7 seasons, and LeBron has led the NBA in PER in 6 seasons.
Another interesting point is that both MJ and LJ have both played with stars, but it gets interesting. When MJ was without Pippen, he had a losing season every year, lost more games than he won, and never made it to the second round on the playoffs.
A final comparison is number of triple doubles and “almost triple doubles.” LJ is 5th all time with 94 career regular season triple doubles, and 2nd with 23 playoff triple doubles, including 9 in the finals setting the record over Magic Johnson (8). Also, in 2017 LeBron became the first player in NBA history to average a triple double in the finals. MJ finished his career 10th all time with 28 triple doubles, and is not in the top ten for playoff triple doubles. This is just another thing that LJ can add to his lead over time. Also, even though these don’t count they are worth noting, up to 3/13/15 LJ had 303 games (and counting) with 7+ assists and 7+ rebounds, 162 games with 8+ assists and 8+ rebounds, and 71 games with 9+ assists and 9+ rebounds. To think he has been that close to so many triple doubles in insane.
As of now, MJ is the GOAT, but rings alone do not simplify greatness, and by the time LJ is done, he will most likely have surpassed MJ in every single category; points, assists, rebounds, playoffs, regular season, etc. Will he ever be the scorer that MJ was per game? No. Will he ever have the 100% finals record? No. Finally, will LeBron ever have the off court and culture impact that Jordan had and still has? No. If he continues playing though, LJ could equal or even get more rings, more awards and accolades and better stats. He will not only finish with the best stats, but he will finish as one of the best teammates in history, and will be the Greatest. Of. All. Time.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/complete-history-of-the-nba/#cavaliers
http://www.landofbasketball.com/player_comparison/j/lebron_james_vs_michael_jordan.htm
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jordami01.html?lid=header_players
http://sports.inquirer.net/214673/james-triple-double-puts-him-in-exclusive-club
https://www.benzinga.com/news/17/06/9603104/every-record-lebron-james-broke-in-the-nba-finals
(http://www.thefumble.com/michael-jordan/sorry-michael-jordan-lebron-james-will-be-greatest-ever.html, 2013)
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-EvdipjioY)
(http://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-statistics-game/lebron-vs-jordan-is-there-a-comparison-yet)
©ZG16
